A research paper published Thursday linked 9,799 additional live births in Texas to an abortion ban that the state passed in 2021, confirming what researchers had expected to happen after the bill was passed.
The Texas Legislature passed a bill in September 2021 that effectively banned abortions about 5 to 6 weeks after a woman's last menstrual cycle.
While researchers generally expect abortions to drop and live births to rise after an anti-abortion measure is passed, the extent to which this will occur is not always known.
Now researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have estimated that roughly 9,800 live births in Texas occurred between April and December 2022 that wouldn't have if the abortion ban hadn't been in place at that time.
Through statistical modeling and looking back at previous live birth data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, researchers found that there would have been 287,289 live births in Texas in that time period if the 2021 ban had not been enacted. In reality, 297,088 were observed in that time period.
“The study’s findings highlight how abortion bans have real implications for birthing people, thousands of whom may have had no choice but to continue an unwanted or unsafe pregnancy to term,” Susan Bell, assistant professor at the Bloomberg School’s Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, said in a statement.
This data comes one year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Since then, 13 states have passed total abortion bans, with many making no exception for rape or incest.
Texas is among these states, having also passed a trigger law in 2021 in the event that Roe was overturned. The ban's only exception is if the life of the mother is threatened.
A group of more than a dozen women are suing the Texas state government, alleging the abortion ban put their lives at risk because it prevented them from receiving an abortion until their health became dire enough for providers to step in.
Researchers noted that the results of the study cannot be generalized as only Texas was subject to the analysis.
“Although our study doesn't detail why these extra births occurred, our findings strongly suggest that a considerable number of pregnant individuals in Texas were unable to overcome barriers to abortion access," said Alison Gemmill, assistant professor at the Bloomberg School’s Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health.
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