A ballot measure to protect abortion rights in Montana stands a good chance of passing, but it may not be enough to push Sen. Jon Tester (D) across the finish line in one of the most watched campaigns this cycle that could decide control of the Senate.
Tester’s campaign has been leaning into abortion as a major issue, like Democrats nationwide as the party tries to defend its single-seat Senate majority.
He has campaigned with the head of Planned Parenthood’s national political action committee and run ads pointing out the extremism of his opponent, anti-abortion Republican political newcomer Tim Sheehy.
But his messaging does not appear to be resonating among enough voters. The three-term Democrat trails Sheehy by nearly 5 percentage points, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling average.
At the same time, a measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution has bipartisan support. A recent poll from Montana State University Billings put the initiative at 60 percent favorability, far more than the simple majority needed to pass.
Deirdre Schifeling, chief political and advocacy officer at the ACLU, which is helping to promote Montana’s measure, said Americans support reproductive rights more than they support individual politicians.
“Reproductive rights, and the ability to vote directly on the issue of reproductive rights, is far more popular than any candidate or political party ... this is something that's highly motivational to voters to vote on directly. That doesn't necessarily mean that it's translating to every elected official on the ballot,” Schifeling said.
Democrats are hoping Montana’s constitutional initiative will boost turnout, but pollsters and ballot measure experts said that’s not a guarantee.
“The fundamental premise that these ballot measures were initiated in order to serve a Democratic Party turnout mechanism is just not correct,” Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, told reporters recently. “Candidates need to do that work themselves if they want to see an additional boost from being on the ballot with abortion measures.”
Abortion rights ballot campaigns, especially in red states like Montana, take great pains to assert their independence from political parties.
"Reproductive rights are not partisan. This amendment was put on the ballot by 117,000 Montanans in order to protect the rights of our citizens,” said Ashley All, a spokesperson for Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights, the coalition supporting the measure.
In the two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion rights have won every time Americans have voted on the issue. GOP-enacted state bans on abortion have proven to be unpopular and a liability with voters.
This year, Montana is one of ten states that will vote on abortion-related ballot measures.
Tester supports the initiative, while Sheehy has spoken out against it. Sheehy said the amendment was “not good for Montana” and that it was “trying to legalize abortion completely.”
Sheehy has described himself as “proudly pro-life" and in leaked audio made disparaging comments about women being “indoctrinated” on the issue of abortion and “single-issue voters.”
While Montana is very red — former President Trump carried the state by more than 16 percentage points four years ago — abortion is currently protected up to the point of fetal viability because of a 1999 state Supreme Court decision.
The ballot amendment would codify the current law and make it illegal for the government to regulate or restrict abortion before viability, which is around 24 weeks. There would be post-viability exceptions for when abortion care is needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant person.
Experts said voters like to draw a straight line from ballot measures to their daily lives, which doesn’t always translate to supporting a specific candidate.
“Voters love to say, regardless of who I believe in the politician landscape, I know that I can go vote yes on [Arizona’s Proposition] 139, yes on three in Missouri, yes on four in Florida, and I know that my vote will translate into fundamental rights and freedoms in in my community,” Hall said.
Jayson O’Neil, a Montana-based Democratic strategist, said it’s an easy “logical jump” for people to vote to protect their individual rights while supporting a candidate who opposes those same rights.
“A lot of Montana can say, well, I can protect my rights here by voting for this initiative. And then still, that means I have maybe a little more leeway to vote for somebody like Sheehy that doesn't align with that,” O’Neil said. “But I can protect myself by voting for this initiative.”
Montana voters trend Libertarian, and the ballot measure campaign has reflected that. Ads talk about personal autonomy and keeping the government out of an individual’s private medical decisions.
“I think that there's kind of a problem with assuming that Tester is a champion of abortion rights, and therefore those who are feeling positively toward Constitutional Initiative 128 [Montana’s abortion rights initiative] and are going to vote for Tester,” said Hope Dewell Gentry, an assistant professor of political science at Montana State University Billings.
To win over voters who would otherwise support former President Trump, Tester has tried to match that rhetoric.
“Tim Sheehy doesn’t get it. Sheehy wants to put politicians in Washington in charge of a woman’s health care decisions. It’s not who we are as Montanans,” Tester says in an ad.
John LaBombard, a Democratic consultant who has advised red state and swing state candidates, said Tester’s team knows how to speak to voters, especially in the closing days of the campaign.
Abortion “will almost certainly help Sen. Tester paint a stark and useful contrast with his opponent — but the Tester team also understands that will only be one part of their broader strategy to remind Montanans that Jon Tester is one of them, shares their values and is fighting for their families,” LaBombard said in an email.
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